Levy Proposition Vote Analysis

UPDATE 2/24/14 4:00 pm

 

This year's levy election results were positive, with 54% of the voters who voted to support the levy.  The percentage of positive votes was the lowest for an M&O election since 1998.  I have analyzed the numbers a bit and found some interesting indicators.

 

The Data Table Below shows M&O results for the past Eight M&O propositions.   

 

 

  Clark Yes Clark No Clark Total Clark % Yes Cowlitz Yes Cowlitz No Cowlitz Total Cowlitz % Yes Total Yes Total No Total Total % Yes
Feb-14 165 126 291 56.7% 1013 884 1897 53.4% 1178 1010 2188 53.84%
Feb-12 208 139 347 59.9% 1351 928 2279 59.3% 1559 1067 2626 59.37%
Feb-10 235 149 384 61.2% 1426 1008 2434 58.6% 1661 1157 2818 58.94%
Mar-08 196 156 352 55.7% 1333 1046 2379 56.0% 1529 1202 2731 55.99%
Mar-06                 1551 980 2531 61.28%
Feb-03 223 143 366 60.9% 1322 683 2005 65.9% 1545 826 2371 65.16%
May-00 236 141 377 62.6% 1212 631 1843 65.8% 1448 772 2220 65.23%
Feb-98 195 179 374 52.1% 932 827 1759 53.0% 1127 1006 2133 52.84%

 

Observations:

  1. There were far fewer votes cast than in any levy election since 2000.  The total votes cast was 533 fewer than the average of the past three M&O elections.
  2. The number of NO votes cast was lower than any election since 2003.  
  3. The number of YES votes was far lower than any election since 2000.
  4. It is commonly believed that the majority of Solid NO voters and Solid Yes voters tend to vote early and consistenly.   Siwng voters tend to vote later, and support schools.    In every school election since at least 2008 late returns have trended positive.  In this election the 379 votes counted after election night ran 56.46% positive.
  5. There is anecdotal information that suggests the weather ("Snowzilla 2014") was an impact on voters returning their ballots.
  6. The only difference between the 2014 proposition and the 2012 and 2010 proposition was that the WEA Teachers Union sent post cards and made calls to encourage people to return their ballots with a YES vote.  This year they did not.
  7. Prior 2008 School levies required a 60% supermajority to pass.   This necessitated an all out effort by a volunteer committee of citizens similar to the 2012 bond effort.   

As a point of information, I have also included below, return data from bond elections from the last ten years:

 

  Clark Yes Clark No Clark Total Clark % Yes Cowlitz Yes Cowlitz No Cowlitz Total Cowlitz % Yes Total Yes Total No Total Total % Yes
Apr 12 Bond 269 148 417 64.5% 1911 1027 2938 65.0% 2180 1175 3355 65.0%
Mar 08 Bond 196 156 352 55.7% 1333 1046 2379 56.0% 1529 1202 2731 56.0%
Sept 05 Bond 270 137 407 66.3% 1405 875 2280 61.6% 1675 1012 2687 62.3%
May 04 Bond 188 148 336 56.0% 1096 996 2092 52.4% 1284 1144 2428 52.9%